I feel it is fitting to make the first blog post about something that I consider to be both of great importance and also routinely overlooked. This is the purpose of my blog: to focus on issues rarely focused on. Therefore - Abyei is where I begin.
With the continuing violence in Darfur, the many eyes of the media have rightly been drawn towards Sudan, but only to that conflict. The South has largely been forgotten, as it is in a period of relative calm. But the tenacity of this calm is doubtful. First, some background.
Sudan, the largest African nation by area, has suffered from the same artificiality that has afflicted many other modern African states. Like elsewhere, this is a product of colonialism, though native Sudanese were more involved in the formation of Sudan than other African states. The story of modern Sudan goes in some way back to the Egyptian conquest of Sudan in the early 19th century. Prior to this conquest, Sudan had been divided into several large states, most importantly the Kingdom of Sennar in the northern Nile Valley and the Sultanate of Darfur in the west. The South was most likely divided into smaller units and was a major source of slaves.
Particularly after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, the British came to dominate Egypt, and Sudan was largely neglected. In this environment, a Muslim ascetic came to power in 1881, calling himself the Mahdi, redeemer of Islam. His movement controlled almost all of modern Sudan until the British reasserted a stronger control over Sudan in 1898
With the continuing violence in Darfur, the many eyes of the media have rightly been drawn towards Sudan, but only to that conflict. The South has largely been forgotten, as it is in a period of relative calm. But the tenacity of this calm is doubtful. First, some background.
Sudan, the largest African nation by area, has suffered from the same artificiality that has afflicted many other modern African states. Like elsewhere, this is a product of colonialism, though native Sudanese were more involved in the formation of Sudan than other African states. The story of modern Sudan goes in some way back to the Egyptian conquest of Sudan in the early 19th century. Prior to this conquest, Sudan had been divided into several large states, most importantly the Kingdom of Sennar in the northern Nile Valley and the Sultanate of Darfur in the west. The South was most likely divided into smaller units and was a major source of slaves.
Particularly after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, the British came to dominate Egypt, and Sudan was largely neglected. In this environment, a Muslim ascetic came to power in 1881, calling himself the Mahdi, redeemer of Islam. His movement controlled almost all of modern Sudan until the British reasserted a stronger control over Sudan in 1898
The British ran Sudan as two separate territories, starting in 1924. People from the north were not allowed to travel to the south and vice-versa, so the already significant isolations between the two were accentuated over the last fourty years of British rule.
After independence in 1956, little changed. For the fifty years of Sudanese independence, there has been civil war between the South and the central government most of the time. The first war ran 1955-72, and the second 1983-2005.
Since the second Sudanese civil war, it has become relatively clear that the South intends to secede from Sudan, which is not at all surprizing; The central government is controlled by the slightly larger Arab population, and South Sudan has more or less never actually been ruled by the central government anyway. A referendum on southern secession is scheduled for 2011, as is a referendum on the status of Abyei as part of the South or North.
The central government would be uncomfortable with the secession of the South in any circumstance, but several other factors make it more difficult, Abyei being among the most difficult. Abyei is home to around a quarter of Sudan's oil reserves, but is very small and lightly populated, making a referendum easy to manipulate. Hence the conflict. In May, the region erupted into violence, with 90 deaths and, perhaps more importantly, 50,000 people displaced. This has completely thrown any chance of a fair referendum into turmoil.
Currently, both sides are seeking arbitration by the Permanent Court for Arbitration in the Hague regarding Abyei's status, but that may only lead to a temporary peace. I would personally not be surprised if a war begins following the 2011 independence referendum and likely declaration of independence by the South, for one very significant reason. In the 2005 deal which ended the second civil war, there is a provision that, it seems to me, gives the South 50% of all oil profits from southern oil fields. I feel that, in the eventuality of the independence of the South, they would not be satisfied with 50% of profits on oil deposits in their own territory. At the same time, the North would not accept a change in the status quo.
Sudan will remain a place to watch in the decade to come. The issues of the South, compounded by the struggles in Darfur, will continue to place a huge strain on the unity of Sudan. It would be possible to see, in five or ten years time, either one, two or three states emerging from Sudan. One thing that is quite likely, however, is that Sudan will not look the same in just a few years time, especially with the approach on the referendm in 2011. I hope it will avoid a third civil war, but I am not confident
Currently, both sides are seeking arbitration by the Permanent Court for Arbitration in the Hague regarding Abyei's status, but that may only lead to a temporary peace. I would personally not be surprised if a war begins following the 2011 independence referendum and likely declaration of independence by the South, for one very significant reason. In the 2005 deal which ended the second civil war, there is a provision that, it seems to me, gives the South 50% of all oil profits from southern oil fields. I feel that, in the eventuality of the independence of the South, they would not be satisfied with 50% of profits on oil deposits in their own territory. At the same time, the North would not accept a change in the status quo.
Sudan will remain a place to watch in the decade to come. The issues of the South, compounded by the struggles in Darfur, will continue to place a huge strain on the unity of Sudan. It would be possible to see, in five or ten years time, either one, two or three states emerging from Sudan. One thing that is quite likely, however, is that Sudan will not look the same in just a few years time, especially with the approach on the referendm in 2011. I hope it will avoid a third civil war, but I am not confident
